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Quick TakeGlobal gains led by the US despite uneven trends: Global equities ended mostly higher in September, with the S&P 500 up 3.65%, the Nasdaq up 5.68%, the Dow up 1.87% and the Russell 2000 up 3.11%. Europe advanced more modestly as the STOXX 600 rose 1.54%, the FTSE 100 gained 1.83% and the CAC added 2.66%, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.10%. In contrast, the ASX 200 fell 0.78%, its first decline in six months. Commodities diverged, with gold up 11.92% to record highs, copper stronger and WTI crude down 3.09%. Fed cuts rates as policy backdrop turns supportive: The Federal Reserve restarted its rate-cutting cycle with a 0.25% reduction and signalled further easing ahead, supporting confidence that US growth would remain resilient. Longer-dated Treasury yields fell, while the US Dollar was flat. Investors largely looked through fresh tariff announcements, focusing instead on stronger consumer demand and the prospect of easier monetary conditions. Europe and Australia advance unevenly amid policy caution: European gains were tempered by political uncertainty in France, fiscal concerns in the UK and cautious stances from the ECB and Bank of England. In Australia, weakness was broad-based across ten of eleven sectors, with energy and health care under pressure from new US tariffs, while materials outperformed on gold and copper strength. The RBA left the cash rate at 3.60%, with hawkish commentary as inflation rose to 3.0% year-on-year and GDP growth beat forecasts, while softer employment data pointed to labour market strain. |
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Snapshot
Global equity markets ended mostly higher during September, as optimism around monetary easing in the US contrasted with political uncertainty in Europe and weakness in Australian shares. Commodity markets also saw divergence, with gold and copper advancing to fresh highs, while oil extended its recent slide. Investors weighed the continuation of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, ongoing tariff developments and shifting growth signals across major economies.
In the US, equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 up 3.65%, the Nasdaq advancing 5.68% for a sixth consecutive monthly gain, and the Dow rising 1.87%. The Russell 2000 small cap index gained 3.11%, breaking through its November 2021 record high. Market momentum was supported by resilient consumer demand, improving trade clarity and expectations of stronger corporate investment. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% at its September meeting and signalled the likelihood of further cuts before year-end. Treasury yields fell, led by longer-dated maturities, while the US Dollar was flat. Commodities diverged, with gold jumping 11.92% to fresh records and WTI crude down 3.09%, its second straight monthly decline. Tariff risks resurfaced after new sector-specific measures were announced, although markets largely looked through them as focus remained on the supportive monetary backdrop.
In Europe, major indices were mostly higher but underperformed the US. The STOXX 600 rose 1.54% and the FTSE 100 added 1.83%, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.10%. France’s CAC gained 2.66% despite heightened political uncertainty following the collapse of Prime Minister Bayrou’s government, with President Macron appointing Sébastien Lecornu as his successor. Attention now turns to October’s budget as a key test of policy direction and investor confidence. Broader sentiment was underpinned by attractive valuations, record share buyback authorisations and stabilising business activity, although concerns over tariff impacts and fiscal strains in the UK weighed. European central banks remained cautious, with the ECB and Bank of England both holding policy steady. The Euro climbed to a four-year high against the US Dollar, highlighting shifting interest rate differentials.
Australian equities reversed course after five consecutive months of gains, with the ASX 200 falling 0.78% in September. The decline was broad-based, with ten of eleven sectors lower. Energy led the falls, while Consumer Staples and Health Care also struggled following the announcement of new US tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals. Materials stood out as the lone bright spot, supported by strength in gold and a late-month surge in copper prices after supply disruptions in Indonesia. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate at 3.60%, with commentary leaning hawkish given firmer inflation and GDP data. August CPI accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year, the highest in over a year, driven by energy costs, while Q2 GDP growth beat expectations at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. Employment data, however, pointed to signs of softening, with full-time jobs contracting and participation easing. The Australian Dollar gained 1.26% to US$0.66, reflecting both domestic resilience and US Dollar stability.
Overall, September highlighted diverging regional dynamics. US equities continued to lead global markets higher, supported by rate cuts and resilient economic data. Europe advanced, albeit unevenly, as fiscal and political risks lingered, while Australia saw its rally pause amid sectoral headwinds and cautious central bank commentary. Looking ahead, markets remain focused on the trajectory of monetary easing, tariff developments and fiscal debates in Europe and the UK, which will likely guide sentiment into the final quarter of the year.
Key Stocks
Ryan joined Cutcher & Neale as a Portfolio Manager in January 2023, with over 15 years' experience managing multi-asset investment portfolios, specialising in fundamental equity analysis. Ryan holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and is Chairperson of the Cutcher & Neale Investment Committee, which oversees clients' Australian Share, International Share, Fixed Income and Cash exposures.
